US data coming up - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the forthcoming US data.

Key Quotes:

"Advance goods trade balance: The goods trade balance was -$68.8bn in January, a wider deficit than in December, driven by soft goods exports and a steady increase in imports. In February, container data at ports suggest imports may have pulled back after many months of increase while exports increased steadily. Thus, we expect goods trade balance of -$65.1bn, slight narrowing of the deficit from January (Consensus: -$66.4bn). 

Case-Shiller home price index: Home prices in urban areas increased 0.93% m-o-m in December. The annual pace picked up notably, registering 5.58% y-o-y, following an uptick in November. Firm consumer fundamentals for the housing market, coupled with lean supply of housing units, likely continued to exert upward pressure on housing prices in January. However, some of the potential increase may have been due to residual seasonality, which causes relatively rapid increase in the fall/winter months. Consensus expects an increase of 5.60% y-o-y. 

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence: This consumer confidence index rose further to 114.8 in February from 111.6 in January on improvement in the assessment of future expectations. Incoming data suggest consumer sentiment remained elevated in March. Steady pace of job creation and gains in equity markets may have contributed to continued optimism. Moreover, the preliminary report of the Michigan survey indicates that consumer sentiment in March improved slightly in March on a pick-up in consumers’ assessment of current conditions. Thus, we expect the consumer confidence index to have remained elevated at 115.0 in March (Consensus: 114.0)."