Upside risk for USD as the Fed’s new funds rate projection will likely imply less easing – BBH

It is a jam-packed week ahead with policy rate announcements by the Fed, BoJ, RBA, BoE,  Norges Bank and SNB. Economists at BBH analyze how these central bank meetings could impact FX market.

AUD should remain supported as the RBA sticks to a hawkish hold

We see upside risk for USD and Treasury yields as the Fed’s new funds rate projection will likely imply less easing. 

NOK is vulnerable to the downside because we expect Norges Bank to bring forward the timing of when the terminal rate is reached. 

CHF will likely underperform because we expect the SNB to start easing. 

JPY can edge lower as our base case is for the BOJ to keep the policy rate steady.

AUD should remain supported as the RBA sticks to a hawkish hold. 

Finally, GBP will likely trade heavily because the risk is the BOE MPC voting turns less hawkish.