Analysts at TDS see a bit of upside risk compared with consensus for today’s UK inflation data, and think that we could see CPI push up to 2.9% y/y, compared to market consensus of 2.8% and the BoE’s forecast from the Aug IR of 2.7%.
“The entire uptick is coming from energy prices, while we look for core inflation to hold steady at 2.5% y/y, with recent trends showing a deceleration as we move past the peak impact from exchange rate pass-through. It looks to us like the peak for core inflation trends was back in April.”
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