UK unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that they're in line with consensus looking for the UK unemployment rate to remain unchanged at multi-decade lows in February at 4.3%.

Key Quotes

“We're a touch more optimistic on wages, where we think the headline AWE figure could hit 3.0% y/y (mkt 2.9%), and we look for the BoE's preferred measure (private sector regular pay) to rise to 2.9% y/y before likely hitting 3.0% next month. This leaves wage growth slightly ahead of the BoE's Feb IR forecasts, firming our view for a May hike.”

We look for Germany's ZEW survey for April to follow the softening we've seen in other European survey data to start the year, with the current situation dropping from 90.7 to 84.0 (mkt 88.0) and expectations from 5.1 to -1.5 (mkt -1.0).”

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