The research team at Nomura explains that the latest BRC survey showed UK retail sales growth in real terms at its lowest rate for four years and Nomura expects this more marked slowdown to show up in the official data in the months ahead with March numbers at around -0.5% m-o-m and 3.8% y-o-y.
“Official sales volumes have been volatile over the past six months, with monthly growth alternating between rates of close to zero and between 12% (both positive and negative). A better way to look at this jumpy series is to consider the annual rate on a quarterly basis, which currently stands at 3.7% (its lowest for almost a year). Sterling depreciation and the associated rise in inflation are undermining real wage growth which, in turn, appears to be negatively impacting spending.”
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