Analysts at Nomura enlist key event risks scheduled for release from the UK docket today, all dropping in at 0830 GMT.
The trade deficit ballooned to £14bn in April (close to a record) thanks almost entirely to a worsening in the balance on erratic items. In fact, the underlying deficit, which strips out erratics and oil, was broadly unchanged on the month.
And unwinding of the erratic move could narrow the deficit back to similar levels to that in March (around £12bn).
UK Industrial production:
Manufacturing output fell for a third consecutive month in April, the monthly decline being the most sizeable for over five years which in turn had the effect of halving the annual rate of growth to just 1.4%.
Overall industrial production fell by a little less thanks to a partial offsetting rise in mining and quarrying output of nearly 7% between March and April.
With the output index of the PMI having risen in May and the CBI's output balances generally having remained upbeat we would not be surprised to see some snapback in production in May.
This is a particularly important report as it contains the first set of rolling monthly GDP figures ever published for the UK - switching from the quarterly release schedule (with interim monthly revisions) that has operated until now.
The data will be published alongside the monthly industrial and services output releases and are said to contain a back series. It means that the previous "first estimate" of each full quarter's GDP will be delayed by around two weeks, which has the benefit of increasing the amount of underlying data that makes up the estimate. NIESR has had a good record of estimating monthly GDP over recent years and it is currently suggesting a Mar-May quarterly growth rate of 0.2% q-o-q. With the BoE increasingly seeing the slowing in growth earlier this year as temporary we think the risks are to the upside to this official estimate of GDP growth (note the BoE expects GDP in the full Apr-Jun quarter to grow at 0.4% q-o-q).”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.