UK annualized CPI beats estimates with 0.6% in June, GBP/USD revisits daily highs

  • UK CPI rises 0.6% YoY in June vs. +0.4% expected.
  • Monthly UK CPI arrives at +0.1% in June vs. 0% expected.
  • GBP/USD heads back towards 1.2588 on the data release.

The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate came in at +0.6% in June when compared to +0.5% booked in May while matching expectations of a +0.4% print, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, the core inflation gauge (excluding volatile food and energy items) arrived at +1.4% YoY last month versus +1.2% booked in May while beating the consensus forecast of +1.2%.

The monthly figures showed that the UK consumer prices arrived at +0.1% in June vs. 0% expectations and 0% last.

Main points (via ONS):

“The largest contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate in June 2020 came from recreation and culture (0.32 percentage points).

Rising prices for games and clothing resulted in the largest upward contributions to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate between May and June 2020.

Falling prices for food resulted in a partially offsetting downward contribution to the change.”

Separately, the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) – Input for June arrived at -6.4% YoY vs. -6.5% expected and -10.0% previous. The PPI Core Output came in at +0.5% YoY in June vs. +0.6% expected and +0.6% prior.

June’s Retail Price Index stood at +0.2% MoM vs. +0.2% expected and -0.1% prior. On an annualized basis, the index came in at +1.1% in June vs. +1.0% forecasts and +1.0% seen in April.

FX implications:

Following the upbeat UK CPI numbers, the GBP/USD  ticked a few pips higher towards the daily highs of 1.2588, having found support near 1.2565 region.

The spot trades +0.25% at 1.2582, at the time of writing.

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