Turkey: Consumer inflation to stay near 19% till November – BBVA


Data released on Tuesday showed inflation rose by 1.8% in July in Turkey, a reading above expectations. Analysts at BBVA point out the upside surprise in food prices boosted the annual inflation rate to 18.95% from 17.53%. They expect consumer inflation to remain around 18.5/19% till November, ending the year around 16% helped by base effects. 

Key Quotes: 

“Consumer prices increased by 1.80% in July, again being realized above expectations (BBVA Research 1.67%, Consensus 1.57%). Annual consumer inflation rose to 18.95% up from 17.53% in June. Higher than expected positive food inflation in contrast to its seasonally negative level and a mixed picture in core prices resulted in our deviation.”

“Potential volatility in food inflation due to this year’s drought besides losses on still continuing fires, and deepened cost-push factors will keep the risks on the upside for inflation outlook in the near term. Even in a gradual currency depreciation pattern, we expect consumer inflation to stay close to 18.5-19% till November and end the year at 16% with the help of positive base effects on food inflation in the last two months of the year.”

“Cost push factors on strong commodity prices and supply side problems, pressures from the exchange rate pass thru, still growing domestic demand and worsening inflation expectations maintain uncertainties over the inflation outlook. We expect consumer inflation to realize 16% at the end of the year, which could provide only very limited room for an easing from the CBRT starting from October as the CBRT communication also highlights.”
 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

How do emotions affect trade?
Follow up our daily analysts guidance

Subscribe Today!    

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pressured toward 1.17 on Evergrande crisis

EUR/USD is extending its losses, falling toward 1.17. The safe-haven dollar is in demand as the crisis around China's Evergrande deepens and a global slowdown is feared. Tensions toward the Fed decision and also Germany's elections are taking their toll too.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD tumbles under 1.37, succumbing to dollar strength

GBP/USD is trading under 1.37, suffering from robust dollar demand. The financial woes of China's Evergrande threaten a drop in global demand. Soaring energy prices are also weighing on sentiment. The Fed and the BOE are eyed later this week.

GBP/USD News

Gold bears tease five-week low near $1,750, China, Fed eyed

Gold bears regain controls ahead of the key weekly events, down 0.36% intraday near $1,748 heading into Monday’s European session. 

Gold News

Cardano introduces Layer 2 solution Hydra, as ADA price looks to rally 25%

Cardano price is grappling with a crucial support floor on the daily time frame as the big crypto experienced a minor crash. Investors can expect ADA to slice through this barrier before restarting its uptrend.

Read more

Canadian Federal Elections: Not a very crucial vote

Markets are taking a hands-off approach to Monday’s Canadian Federal election between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals and Erin O'Toole's Conservatives. 

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures