Travelers (TRV) is showing an incomplete bullish sequence

The Travelers Companies, Inc., TRV, is an American insurance company. It is the second-largest writer of U.S. commercial property casualty insurance, and the sixth-largest writer of U.S. personal insurance through independent agents.

Weekly TRV chart July 2023

One year ago, we wrote that TRV ended a great super cycle in the year of 2019 reaching a peak at $154.86 which we call the wave ((I)). Then the market made a quick and strong correction driven by the COVID19 pandemic in 2020. The company lost 50% of its value reaching $76.99 per share in March. This culminated wave ((II)) and we are currently building wave ((III)). Wave (I) of ((III)) ended at $194.51 in January 2023 building an impulse and it has been correcting in wave (II) of ((III)) ever since. We expected to continue the rally in wave (III) of ((III)) after reaching 152.52 – 131.87 blue box area. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory) 

Weekly TRV chart July 2024

Currently, we can see the rally as expected, but missing the blue box for 5 dollars. Also, we adjusted the count in TRV weekly chart. We are still trading in wave ((III)), but with the new data, the stock is still in wave (I) of ((III)). Therefore, wave I higher ended at 187.98 and pullback as wave II finished at 149.65 low. The price rally again breaking wave I high suggesting that wave III of (I) had started. Then, wave ((1)) of III ended at 194.51 and the correction that we are expecting to enter the market ended at 157.33 low as wave ((2)). From here, we can see a strong momentum to the upside ending wave ((3)) of III at 232.75 high. Wave ((4)) of III built a zigzag correction ended at 200.21 low.

Now, we are looking one more push to the upside to complete wave ((5)) of III and wave III of (I) before starting a retracement in wave IV of (I). The correction should retest wave ((4)) low and then rally in wave V of (I). The possible area to end wave ((5)) comes in 240.74 – 253.27 where we should see a reaction lower to think that the cycle is ended.