Fed's Williams: It is critical for the US central bank to get inflation back to 2%

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said that he projects the jobless rate will come back down over the next few years at an event hosted by the New Jersey Bankers Association. Audience questions expected on Monday.

Key takeaways

I expect inflation to move to 2.5% in 2026, 2% in 2027.

I see tariffs as a one-off price adjustment, not spilling over into broader inflation.

Labor market cooling has been gradual process.

I expect 2026 GDP growth to hit 2.25%, well above the 2025 rate.

I expect US unemployment to be 4.5% by the end of 2025.

Labor market risks have risen as risks'to inflation have eased.

I expect active usage of the standing repo facility to manage liquidity.

Fed policy has moved toward neutral from modestly restrictive.

It is critical for the US central bank to get inflation back to 2%.

Monetary policy is well-positioned for what lies ahead.

Monetary policy is very focused on balancing jobs."

Fed FAQs

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD stalls rebound above 0.7050 amid fresh Mideast tensions

AUD/USD stalls its rebound from almost two-month lows and treads water near 0.7050 in Asia on Monday, as the US Dollar pauses following Friday's upbeat US NFP-led blowout rally to a two-month high. However, renewed geopolitical tensions, along with surging bets on Fed rate hikes, continue to act as a tailwind for the USD, capping the higher-yielding Aussie.

USD/JPY holds higher ground toward 160.50 despite 'Yentervention' fears

USD/JPY holds higher ground toward 160.50 in Monday's Asian trading, despite intervention fears. Japan’s revised GDP print, which confirmed that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter, weighs on the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, Friday's upbeat US NFP report and fresh Israel-Iran attacks favor the US Dollar bulls, underpinning the currency pair.

Gold seems vulnerable near $4,300 as geopolitics and Fed hike bets support USD

Gold attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the $4,350-$4,355 area and touches its lowest level since March 23 on the first day of a new week. Renewed hostilities in the Gulf push Crude Oil prices higher, fanning inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks.

Dogecoin: Smart money flees DOGE, exposing a 12% downside risk

Dogecoin price hovers around $0.0850 at press time on Monday, keeping steady after a 5% rebound the previous day from the February 6 low at $0.08000. On-chain data show that large-wallet investors with 100 million to 1 billion DOGE have reduced their holdings to a five-month low, providing the downside pressure.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.