TLT: Potential wave V breakdown after wave IV consolidation

Gregor Horvat Wavetraders

TLT is an exchange-traded fund that tracks long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, making it highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and bond market sentiment.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, TLT has been unfolding a clear five-wave bearish impulse structure since the 2020 peak. This broader decline suggests a long-term downtrend in long-duration bonds driven by rising yields over the cycle.

The sideways consolidation seen since 2024 appears to be a corrective phase within this bearish structure, most likely forming a wave IV consolidation. Price behavior during this period fits the characteristics of a potential bearish triangle, indicating compression before the next directional move.

If this interpretation holds, the current structure is setting up for a resumption of downside momentum within wave V over the coming weeks or months, which would complete the larger bearish cycle from the 2020 highs.

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Author

Gregor Horvat

Wavetraders

Experience Grega is based in Slovenia and has been in the Forex market since 2003.

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