Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears. While recessions are impossible to predict, economists at Charles Schwab think the risk of one – sooner rather than later – has picked up.

Signs point to rising recession risk

“Recession fear has risen swiftly this year. Inflation is rising at its fastest pace in decades, the Federal Reserve has begun what is expected to be an aggressive rate-hike cycle, global supply-chain problems persist, and the Russia-Ukraine war has upended commodity markets. All this has driven a rise in market volatility and fear of a coming economic downturn.”

“We think the risk of a recession – sooner rather than later – has picked up. Intense market volatility, sour consumer confidence, and downward pressure on income growth all point to an economy that is slowing down.”