The Riksbank leaves everything open – Commerzbank

As expected, the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 2% on Wednesday. At the same time, it signaled the possibility of a further interest rate cut this year, which would be 'in line with the June forecast', Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

Riksbank has not become more dovish

"Although developments in inflation and economic activity during the summer have deviated somewhat from the forecast in June, according to the Riksbank, it assessed that the outlook remained largely the same. According to Central Bank Governor Erik Thedéen, seasonal factors (such as rental cars) led to the rise in inflation in the summer, but the core rate appears to be moving toward the 2% target."

"The Riksbank therefore gave no indication of an earlier interest rate cut, e.g., in September. It kept all options open, though, stating: 'However, new information can affect both the outlook for inflation and economic activity, as well as monetary policy going forward'. Therefore, if something unexpected happens between now and September, it could cut the policy rate in September, even if this does not seem to be its base scenario."

"In short, everything is basically unchanged compared with June, but at the same time anything is possible. However, as the Riksbank has not become more dovish, the decision should be neutral for the SEK."