The outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil – CE

Economists at Capital Economics expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil. But they project the increase in the former to be much smaller than in the latter.

See: S&P 500 Index to dip to 4,200 by end-2021 as US 10-year yield will end the year at 2.25% – CE

The difference in term premia is larger in Brazil

“Our view that bond yields will rise by more in Brazil than in India is based on our expectation that while term premia will rise in both countries as the US Treasury yield creeps higher, they will increase by more in Brazil than India.”

“The upshot is that we forecast the yield of 10-year government bonds in Brazil to rise by ~100bp in the remainder of this year, from around 9.20% currently to 10.25%. In contrast, we project the yield of 10-year government bonds in India to rise by just ~25bp, from ~6.00% to 6.25%.”