The Dollar tends to perform poorly in the immediate period after the CPI data – MUFG

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at MUFG Bank analyze how the US Dollar tends to perform after the release of the CPI report.

There is scope for downside surprises

The Dollar tends to perform poorly in the immediate period after the CPI data. In a six-hour period following the data, the USD has weakened in eight of the last ten months of CPI data releases with the data weaker than expected or in line with expectations in seven of those ten months.

The hurdle for a surprise to the downside is becoming lower in the core readings given the sharp declines in headline CPI will soon be behind us and we believe there is scope for downside surprises given those sharp falls in headline inevitably feed into underlying inflation. If that were to be evident today we would expect further falls in US rates and the Dollar albeit less than what we expected a few days ago given the Dollar selling of late.

See – US CPI Banks Preview: Inflation to step meaningfully lower in June

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.