Thailand: Some green shoots of trade recovery – ING

The ING Bank analysts noted that Thailand’s “accelerated trade decline in October tells us more about past history than the current trend, which already looks to have turned for the better.”

Key Quotes:

“Thailand’s October trade figures released today showed steeper than expected declines in both exports and imports. Exports fell by 4.5% year-on-year and imports were down 7.6%, yielding a narrower monthly trade surplus of $507 million compared with $1.3 billion in September.

Trade growth was weaker than a consensus that centred on -3.7% YoY for exports and -6.5% for imports, but the trade surplus was higher than $419 million expected.

Although the monthly trade surplus narrowed sharply in October, the cumulative surplus of $7.9 billion in the first 10 months of the year is up by $3.5 billion from the same period of 2018. Indeed, this will be associated with a wider current account surplus this year, marking the end of a brief trend of narrowing in 2018.

We don’t see this trade report carrying much market impact, especially on the currency (Thai baht, THB) for which it matters most. However, the THB continues to enjoy the strong backing of a large current account surplus.”