Stock Markets: To rise or fall in Feb? [Video]

Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage.

 FTSE 100 March holding a 3 day range from 7710 up to 7780.

Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa.

Update daily by 06:00 GMT.

Today's Analysis.

Dax March held 18 ticks above support at 15000/14950 to hit my target & minor resistance at 15170/200. If we continue higher look for strong resistance at last week's high of 15300/330. Shorts need stops above 15380. A break higher is a buy signal. 

First support again at 15000/14950. A break lower targets 14870/850 then strong support at 14770/720.

FTSE March reversed from first resistance at 7775/95 this week to my target of 7730/10 before a bounce from 7690. I think we are establishing a sideways trend but i will have to wait a but longer for reliable trend lines to trade. 

We should have strong resistance at 7745/65 today. Shorts need stops above 7785. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7825 before a retest of 7850/60.  

First support at 7695/75. Longs need stops below 7865.

 

Emini S&P March is forming a new sideways range as we ignore the 3990/4010 area. I will have to wait a but longer to draw accurate tradeable trend lines but will do my best to identify support & resistance at this stage.

I would forget running a swing trade & try to scalp the levels I provide.

Nasdaq March we were offered 200 ticks on the short & another 200 ticks profit on the long at yesterday's support level.

Emini Dow Jones March trades in an erratic sideways channel for 3 months. Unfortunately longs at first support at 33600/500 were stopped on the slide to 33347 before we shot higher to 33850.

Update daily by 06:00 GMT.

Today's Analysis.

Emini S&P March  should have minor support at 4005/3995. If you try a long stop below 3985. A break lower can target 3970/60, perhaps as far as 3940/35.

Longs at 4005/3995 can target 4030, perhaps as far as 4050. A break above 4060 can target 4075 & 4095.

Nasdaq March shorts at 11950/12050 worked perfectly this week, hitting first support at 11730/680 for profit taking. A nice 200 ticks.

The long also worked perfectly with a 300 tick bounce from 11604. Did you make 400 ticks on the long & the short yesterday?

The bounce is quickly taking us back to my sell opportunity at 11950/12050 - shorts need stops above 12100. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 12460/480.

Shorts again at 11950/12050 can target 11830/820, perhaps as far as first support at 11730/680 for profit taking today. Longs need stops below 11600.

Emini Dow Jones should have support at 33500/400. Longs need stops below 33300. A break lower can target 33000. 

Minor resistance at 33900/34000. A break higher can target 34180/200 before a retest ppf 34430/490.

It is becoming a scalpers market in stock indices - perhaps we will trade sideways in to the spring now.

The news has been about as bad as it could get for weeks - the Fed has been trying to take the market down, but it remains firm.

A mild recession and US rates at around 5.25% are priced in. I think we will have to wait for a change of perception before we can start a new trend for stocks.

Actually I would not be surprised to see stocks trade sideways through the summer, as long as inflation continues to ease very slowly & rates rise very slowly, then pause, all as expected.

There will be no reason for stocks to soar or collapse.