Stairs up, elevator down

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

Without serious bid, S&P 500 flushed Friday after great AVGO earnings (that were summarily dumped) – when it could have done so the day before following less than stellar ORCL earnings after Wednesday‘s close.

The first serious intraday rally didn‘t take ES into at 5,860s if not 5,870 – bulls didn‘t have daily initiative. Justified? Was bond market and volatility on fire? Well, USD is duly weakening on rate cutting and those $40bn a month, and rising yields reflect decreasing attractivity of Treasuries, which is summing up an environment where foreign stocks do better than US equities.

Is the bullish case lost, and Santa Claus rally early in the week cancelled (even if BTC doesn‘t rally and is still in that troubled bearish wedge / flag pattern)? I was adamant days ago that the initiative moved over from Nasdaq into financials, cyclicals (it‘s still industrials over defensives), and into Russell 2000 – so much recession fears that when have you last seen, make consumer stocks and retailers rally (ANF Friday is a result of management shakeup rather that industry development to spread like wildfire). Pick yours stocks and sectors as tech headwinds mean environment getting defensive.

Likewise I was clear about us getting differentiation in Mag 7 stocks, where the reassessed AI trade is to pick fresh winners and losers (talked with clients daily), making just not hyperscalers as a group rise.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Gains remain capped by $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus attention on the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline as the US Dollar alternates gains with losses at the end of the week.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

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Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.