Spain: PSOE-led minority government most likely outcome – ING


Steven Trypsteen, economist at ING, points out that the latest polls are showing that Spain's Socialist Workers Party, the PSOE, should remain the largest party but may lose some votes compared to the April election.

Key Quotes

“The party is projected to receive 27% of the vote, giving it about 117 seats. In April, it received 29% of the vote and 123 seats. The People's Party (PP), on the other hand, is forecast to do better, with polls showing that it will receive 20% of the vote, up from 17%. This has a large impact on seats, potentially rising to 90 - a gain of 24 compared to the previous election.”

“The two main opponents who challenged the two traditional parties (the PP and the PSOE) after the financial and eurozone crisis are likely to lose votes and seats, according to the latest polls. Citizens could get half of the votes received back in April, falling to just 8% from 16%.”

“In terms of seats, this suggests a drop to just 14 from 57, limiting the party's power. The left-wing Podemos is also projected to lose some votes, though the fall may be less dramatic compared to Citizens. The party may get 13% of the vote compared to 14% during the previous election. This implies 34 seats in parliament, down 8 from the last election.”

“Voting intentions appear to have changed since the April election. But these changes will not make it easier to form a government so the political situation is likely to remain difficult after this weekend’s vote. Still, pressure to find a solution after four elections in as many years will rise. In our view, a minority government led by the PSOE is the most likely outcome.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Bearish hammer on D1 ahead of ECB minutes

EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the minutes of the ECB Oct policy meeting, which are expected to show the members stand divided on which course to take. Waning trade optimism will likely keep the EUR on the defensive.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD turns positive above 21-DMA as challenges to Tories recede

With the Tory supporters paying little heed to the previous day’s ITV debate, not to forget a surprise turnaround in the opposition Labour party loyalists, GBP/USD trades  better bid above 1.2900 while heading into the London open on Thu.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY bounces-off 50-DMA but lacks follow-through

USD/JPY has bounced up from the 50-day MA support of 108.28. China's Vice Premier Liu He is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the US-China trade deal. Related markets, however, are not buying Liu He's optimism, keeping the recovery in check. 

USD/JPY News

Gold: Doji on D1 questions bulls amid mixed trade sentiment

Although the United States’ (US) support for Hong Kong protesters favors the broad risk-off momentum, the mixed response from Chinese diplomats and a bearish candlestick formation question Gold buyers around $1,473 during early Thursday.

Gold News

Hong Kong now a feature in trade negotiations?

The US Senate and House have both passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill, so now it heads to the desk of US President Trump to either sign or veto it. Sources suggest that the President will sign it into law.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures