S&P 500 to get closer to its all-time highs – SocGen

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

US equities are up 16% this year. Economists at Société Générale analyze the S&P 500 Index outlook.

Moving 3Q23 target of 4,750 to 4Q23

We shift our S&P 500 Index target of 4,750 in 3Q23 to year-end 2023 (from 4,300) as the no-landing scenario is not yet priced in and should be over the coming months as recession calls are deleted/delayed. Put another way, we stay bullish near term, despite the likely jitters in 2024.

We expect a 15% shock in the S&P 500 in 2Q24, likely driven by a contraction in US consumer spending. However, with a return to 5% nominal GDP growth in 2025e, the S&P 500 should recover. Our index targets are supported by our equity risk premium projections, which assume: 1) bond yields will come down to 3-3.5% in a soft recession; and 2) aggressive Fed rate cuts in the middle of 2024.

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FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

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AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold pares intraday gains, trades below $4,150 as Fed hike bets cap upside

Gold struggles to capitalize on its strong Asian session move up on Thursday and currently trades below $4,150. The commodity, however, retains an intraday bullish bias, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low, touched on Wednesday, amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

Zcash declines as US inflation surprise offsets fresh ETF inflows

Zcash (ZEC) is trading in the red on Friday, extending its previous day’s roughly 6% losses as the broader cryptocurrency market falls on rising US inflation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in higher than expected, at an annual increase of 3.7% versus the expected 3.6%, raising concerns about inflation and rate hikes.

China seems routing US Treasury holdings through Canada

According to a Bloomberg report, China seems to be moving United States securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, masking its role in financing US deficits.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?