S&P 500 to get closer to its all-time highs – SocGen

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

US equities are up 16% this year. Economists at Société Générale analyze the S&P 500 Index outlook.

Moving 3Q23 target of 4,750 to 4Q23

We shift our S&P 500 Index target of 4,750 in 3Q23 to year-end 2023 (from 4,300) as the no-landing scenario is not yet priced in and should be over the coming months as recession calls are deleted/delayed. Put another way, we stay bullish near term, despite the likely jitters in 2024.

We expect a 15% shock in the S&P 500 in 2Q24, likely driven by a contraction in US consumer spending. However, with a return to 5% nominal GDP growth in 2025e, the S&P 500 should recover. Our index targets are supported by our equity risk premium projections, which assume: 1) bond yields will come down to 3-3.5% in a soft recession; and 2) aggressive Fed rate cuts in the middle of 2024.

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FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD regains balance, targets 1.1800

EUR/USD has lost a bit of momentum after its earlier push higher and is now attempting to reclaim the key 1.1800 barrier on Monday. In the meantime, investors remain focused on the evolving US–EU trade relationship after President Trump’s announcement of sweeping global tariff hikes.

GBP/USD recedes from tops, back to 1.3500

GBP/USD is extending its move higher on Monday, meeting some resistance around 1.3530 on the back of the widespread bearish tone in the US Dollar amid ongoing uncertainty around tariffs. For now, traders are watching overall risk sentiment and central bank rhetoric for the next directional cue.

Gold advances to four-week highs, focus is on $5,200

Gold is holding onto its bullish tone on Monday, hovering near monthly highs well above the $5,100 mark per troy ounce. Fresh trade-war concerns, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are keeping demand for the yellow metal well on the rise.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP intensify sell-off as tariff uncertainty weighs

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are trading amid increasing selling pressure at the time of writing on Monday, as investors react to fresh trade uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s push for more tariffs.

Supreme Court nixes tariffs, Trump teases 15% global tariff

On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.

XRP recovers slightly as bearish sentiment dominates crypto market

Ripple is rising above $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid fresh tariff-triggered headwinds in the broader cryptocurrency market. The sell-off to $1.33, the token’s intraday low, can be attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and risk-averse sentiment among other factors.