S&P 500: Threat of a corrective setback remains – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 Index has yet again held above key support at 3205/3198, which reduces the topping threat somewhat, although economists at Credit Suisse still lean towards a breakdown below this level on balance.

Key quotes

“S&P 500 moved higher on Thursday as the market saw a sharp intraday reversal back higher after yet again holding support from its rising 13-day exponential average, now at 3225 as well as the range lows at 3215/3198. This leaves the market still trapped in its range and whilst we remain of the view the threat of a correction lower remains in place, this threat is somewhat reduced given the market’s ongoing resilience above key supports.” 

“We need to see a close below 3225 to see the topping threat increase again, although only below 3205/3198 would finally see this confirmed, with support then seen initially at 3173. Above 3265/66 would instead open the door to a retest of the ‘reversal day’ high and price resistance at 3279/81.”

“Ultimately we need to see above 3279/81 to ease the threat of a corrective setback for an extension of the rally with resistance seen next at 3288 and the more importantly at the top of the February price gap at 3328/38.”