- US equity markets built on Thursday’s stunning intra-day rebound to press higher on Friday despite intensified fighting in Ukraine.
- The West’s soft sanction response plus the US equity market’s strong track record of overcoming geopolitical uncertainty are helping.
- The S&P 500 was last up 1.9%, the Nasdaq 100 up 1.2% and Dow up 2.2%.
Despite an intensification of the fighting in Ukraine, US equity markets have built upon Thursday’s historic intra-day rebound on Friday and look on couse to end the week at highs. The S&P 500 index, which tested 4100 in premarket trade on Thursday, is now trading in the 4370 region, up more than 6.0% from earlier weekly lows and up a further 1.9% on the day on Friday. The rebound over the last two sessions means that the S&P 500 index is, for now, out of “correction” territory – i.e. it is less than 10% below its early January record highs.
Traders/market commentators have attributed a variety of factors as driving the rebound. Firstly, after the initial panic in wake of Russia’s abrupt invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, it quickly become clear to many that the EU and US would not implement sanctions on Russian energy exports amid fears of inflicting economic self-harm. As long as that remains the case, that lessens some of the stagflationary risks associated with the Russo-Ukraine war. Others have cited the fact that, in the past, major geopolitical events have not had a lasting impact on US equity valuations, meaning there has been plenty of demand to buy the dip.
US economic data on Friday was strong, with January personal income and spending metrics both exceeding expectations and durable goods orders over the same period also seeing strong growth, suggestive of economic resilience despite the high prevalence Omicron in January. Economic optimism combined with the fact that the latest Core PCE inflation report (also for January) was largely in line with expectations is likely contributing to the rally.
The latest inflation figures were not viewed as raising the risk of the 50bps Fed rate hike in March, with 25bps now the base case amid new geopolitical uncertainties. This uncertainty was referenced a few times in the Fed’s latest semi-annual Monetary Policy Report and has been mentioned a few times by policymakers over the last two days. Though Fed hawks James Bullard and Christopher Waller seem keen on a 50bps move in March, most other Fed members sounded more cautious.
Looking at the other major US indices; the Nasdaq 100 index rallied more than 1.0% and, likely to the disappointment of the bears, managed a convincing break back to the north of the 14K level. The Nasdaq is stunning more than 8.0% up from its earlier weekly lows near 13K. The Dow, meanwhile, was up roughly 2.2% and is back to probing weekly highs at the 34K level, roughly 5.0% up versus earlier weekly lows. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX fell three points to the mid-27.00s, a more than 10 point drop from Thursday highs in the 37.00s.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD tumbles toward 0.6350 as Middle East war fears mount
AUD/USD has come under intense selling pressure and slides toward 0.6350, as risk-aversion intensifies following the news that Israel retaliated with missile strikes on a site in Iran. Fears of the Israel-Iran strife translating into a wider regional conflict are weighing on the higher-yielding Aussie Dollar.
USD/JPY breaches 154.00 as sell-off intensifies on Israel-Iran escalation
USD/JPY is trading below 154.00 after falling hard on confirmation of reports of an Israeli missile strike on Iran, implying that an open conflict is underway and could only spread into a wider Middle East war. Safe-haven Japanese Yen jumped, helped by BoJ Governor Ueda's comments.
Gold price edges higher on risk-off mood hawkish Fed signals
Gold prices advanced late in the North American session on Thursday, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks involving Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish messages, triggering a jump in US Treasury yields, which boosted the Greenback.
Dogwifhat price pumps 5% ahead of possible Coinbase effect
Dogwifhat price recorded an uptick on Thursday, going as far as to outperform its peers in the meme coins space. Second only to Bonk Inu, WIF token’s show of strength was not just influenced by Bitcoin price reclaiming above $63,000.
Israel vs. Iran: Fear of escalation grips risk markets
Recent reports of an Israeli aerial bombardment targeting a key nuclear facility in central Isfahan have sparked a significant shift out of risk assets and into safe-haven investments.