S&P 500: Next 3 months will bring a near 20% decline to 2,400 – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs recently came out with its analysis on the leading US equity benchmark, S&P 500. While the bank anticipates the equity gauge to rise further towards 3,000 by the year-end, it also expects a near 20% declines to around 2,400 in the three-months to come.

Some of the risks cited in the report are:

• Infection rates could increase outside worst-hit NY as states reopen their economies.
• A drawn-out economic rebound.
• Major US banks losing profits for loan-loss reserves … the labor market is now being hit harder and thus additional reserve will be required … more companies will cancel stock-buybacks (these have been a major source of demand pushing the stock market higher over the past 10 years).
• Companies cutting dividend payments and also CAPEX spending (which will slow corporate growth ahead).
• November presidential election policies (especially on corporate tax - Dems could reverse Trump's corporate profit-friendly tax moves).
• US-China tensions being stoked further as Trump turns more aggressive in his China approach.

It’s worth mentioning that the S&P 500 managed a gain of less than a point to end Monday’s trading session near 2,930.