S&P 500 Index to fall to circa 3200 – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 remains capped by its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) and downtrend from the beginning of the year. Economists at Credit Suisse look for an eventual move below the 2022 lows, with 3234/3195 as their core objective.

Sustained close above 4101 needed to suggest core trend may have shifted sideways

“We look for a retest of key support from the 200-week average at 3663. A sustained move below here should further reinforce the bear market, clearing the way for a retest of the 2022 lows and 50% retracement of the 2021/2022 bull trend at 3505/3492. Whilst this should again be respected, we look for this to be removed in due course for a decline to the Q1 2020 pre-pandemic high at 3394 next, with our core objective at 3234/3195. We would look for this to then ideally prove a solid floor.”

“Key resistance is seen starting at the 200DMA, currently at 4022, ahead of the 2022 downtrend and December high at 4101. A sustained close above this latter level would suggest the worst of the bear market weakness may have indeed been seen. We would not though look for a new bull market to arise, rather further near-term strength to 4300/4325, but for this to then cap and for a potentially lengthy and broad sideways range to unfold.”