S&P 500 Index: Strength set to fade, support moves to 4181 – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 has again rejected trend resistance from mid-April, seen at 4243 today and with a triple-daily RSI momentum divergence in place here also analysts at Credit Suisse maintain the base case of not chasing strength for now. Instead, the market is looking for a consolidation phase.

See: Sell in May and go away? Three reasons to defy the old adage – UBS

Trend resistance from mid-April has capped again

“The S&P 500 has seen a fresh rejection of trend resistance from mid-April, today seen at 4243 and the subsequent sharp retreat has seen the market back below the price gap from Friday morning and also puts the market back below our Q2 objective of 4200.”

“With daily RSI momentum continuing to trend lower and holding a triple divergence this is seen adding weight to our base case that a broader consolidation phase is underway.”

“A close below support from the 13-day exponential average at 4181 is needed to add further weight to this view with support then seen next at the uptrend from early march at 4150/47. Below here is needed to see downside pressure increase further for a test of key price support at 4129/18, although only below here would see a top established.” 

“Resistance moves to 4208 initially, then 4220, above which is needed to clear the way for a retest of the 4236/43 highs/trend resistance.” 

“The VIX is on course to retest price and 200-day average resistance at 23.55/67. Only a close above here would see a base complete though.”