S&P 500 Index: 4436/56 area to cap for a summer corrective phase – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 strength has extended to the psychological 4400 barrier but with daily and weekly RSI momentum now not confirming the new highs. Economists at Credit Suisse look for one final push higher to the 4436/56 zone.

Daily and weekly momentum not confirming the new highs

“The S&P 500 has pushed higher to just shy of the psychological 4400 barrier but on low volume and with daily and weekly RSI momentum now not confirming the new highs.” 

“We continue to look for one final push higher to our 4436/56 Q3 objective, also the upper end of what we see as its ‘typical’ extreme (15% above the 200-day average) but our bias remains for this to then cap and for a summer correction/consolidation phase to then emerge.” 

“Near-term support remains at 4364/62, below which can ease the immediate upside bias for a pullback to 4344, potentially the price gap from Friday morning and 13-day exponential average at 4335/21, but with a fresh hold expected here.” 

“A close below the 4335/21 region would increase the likelihood a corrective phase lower has already begun although only below 4289/86 though would mark a top.”