S&P 500 Forecast: SPX likely to slide small in shortened trading day

United States stock market reopens after Thanksgiving with equities slowly sliding.
Apple faces more challenges from Foxconn factories in China.
Microsoft's deal for Activision Blizzard also likely to weigh on the tech sector.

Ivan Brian FXStreet

Welcome back after the Thanksgiving feast but do not expect much action on US stock markets. European markets were very quiet and it looks like more of the same on Friday for the S&P 500 to close out the week. Little data of note and only Oil price may get some catalyst later from the European Union meeting to again discuss the price cap on Russian Oil.

S&P 500 news: Limited trading on Black Friday

The United States stock market reopens after its Thanksgiving feast as shoppers rush to Black Friday discounts. That will see reports early next week on the strength of the shopping season and possibly confirm recent trends from retailers who are holding up well.

The news on Apple (AAPL) remains in flux as reports from the Foxconn plant in China continue to worsen. The tech sector could also be hit by Microsoft (MSFT) as its deal for Activision Blizzard (ATVI) looks likely to face more competition scrutiny. Overall, Friday could be set for a small move lower on the back of some profit-taking ahead of the weekend. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, close early at 18.00 GMT (13 EST).

SPX forecast: Bear-market rally scenario intact

Technically, the S&P 500 rally remains in place and bulls are firmly in charge. 4,028 is the intraday resistance pivot, the weekly high. Below, and we are likely to slide to 3,946. That is the medium-term pivot for the move to continue.

S&P 500 (SPX) stock market daily chart shows bear-market rally

SPX daily chart

Author

Ivan Brian

FXStreet

Ivan Brian started his career with AIB Bank in corporate finance and then worked for seven years at Baxter. He started as a macro analyst before becoming Head of Research and then CFO.

AUD/USD hangs near two-month low, below 0.7000 ahead of Australian CPI report

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USD/JPY trades below 157.50 as Japan's weak data and bullish USD lend support

USD/JPY extends its consolidative price move during the Asian session on Wednesday, trading below mid-157.00s. Hawkish BoJ expectations, along with intervention risks, underpin the Japanese Yen, though dismal domestic data cap gains. Meanwhile, rising Fed rate hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears push US bond yields to fresh multi-year highs. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff supports a bullish US Dollar and acts as a tailwind for the currency pair.

Gold consolidates below $4,200 as bullish USD and Fed hike bets offset softer bond yields

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's recovery from an eight-week low, consolidating below $4,200 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The overnight slide in oil prices eased the US Treasury bond rout, supporting the bullion. However, Fed rate-hike bets and inflationary concerns keep bond yields near multi-year highs. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainties underpin the safe-haven US Dollar, which, in turn, caps the commodity.

Ethereum sees profit-taking near $2,700 ahead of key US economic data

Ethereum (ETH) has shown signs of profit-taking near $2,700 over the past few days, with rising exchange deposits and a slowdown in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows ahead of US inflation and labor market data releases. The top altcoin's Exchange Reserves, which track the total amount of a crypto asset held across exchange wallets, have increased by roughly 125K ETH since Friday.

Silver is more volatile than Gold ahead of PCE and NFP. This chart shows the positioning gap

The market’s attention is focused on American data this week, but there’s something only those with a trained eye may be looking at: Gold and Silver positioning gap. Financial markets are moving on fears, mostly related to persistently high energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Sure, the US Dollar (USD) is strong, but at what cost?