In view of Julien Manceaux, Senior Economist at ING, as the outlook for Swiss growth and inflation is only improving slightly, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to continue acting as an economic safety guard in 2018.
“On the one hand, the current SNB inflation forecast is unlikely to allow for any monetary tightening before late 2019. On the other hand, a stronger economic outlook and some inflationary pressures should eliminate any risk of further accommodating measures.”
“We, therefore, think that the SNB will keep its negative interest rates unchanged until late 2019 and will refrain from any further FX interventions while staying open to the possibility to intervene in case of a sudden risk aversion come-back. All in all, the current policy mix equilibrium still looks very stable for the SNB.”
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