|

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles at $22.50 on rising US T-bond yields

  • The market sentiment is upbeat, which triggers a move from safe-haven assets towards riskier ones.
  • Rising US T-bond yields boost the greenback while weakens the non-yielding silver.
  • Positive divergence and a bullish-piercing pattern on a daily chart triggered the move towards $22.60.

Silver (XAG/USD) is sliding for the first day out of four, trading at $22.62, down 0.25% during the day at the time of writing. Investors’ risk appetite is in risk-on mode, depicted by US stock indices price action, with the S&P500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq posting gains of 1.48%, 1.29%, and 1.90%, respectively. 

Higher US T-bond yields, weighing on silver

The US 10-year Treasury yield is rising four basis points (bps), sitting at 1.522%, weighing on the white metal price, as higher bond yields mean higher real yields, hurting the prospects of non-yielding assets, like gold and silver. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against its peers, is up 0.13%, currently at 93.93.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In a daily chart, XAG/USD is trading below the daily moving averages (DMA’s), suggesting that silver is in a downtrend. However, the bounce off at $21.00 on a positive divergence between price action and momentum indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) spurred an upside move capped around $22.60, which was previously tested unsuccessfully six times. Additionally, the presence of a bullish-piercing candle pattern exerted further upward pressure on the move.

A daily close above $22.60 could open the door for further gains. The first resistance would be $23.00. A break above the latter would expose key support supply levels. The 50-day moving average (DMA) at $23.69, followed by the September 10 high at $24.29.

On the other hand, failure at $22.60 could pave the way to a fall towards the 2021 year lows around $21.00, but it will find some hurdles on the way down. The first demand zone would be $22.00. A breach beneath that level would expose essential demand areas at $21.42, followed by $21.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, slightly down, suggesting downward pressure still on the white metal and could trigger another leg down.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.



Gold remains on the back foot below $3,900

Gold now alternates gains with losses below the $3,900 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal struggles to regain traction amid the firmer US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and expectations of further tightening by the Fed at its December meeting.

Bitcoin just posted five straight losing weeks, and the storm may not be over yet

Bitcoin is struggling to find support, slipping below $70,000 as multiple headwinds threaten to push the Crypto King lower. The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize, with persistent selling pressure and widespread liquidations instead reinforcing the “Rektober” narrative.

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings to guide investors

Fed minutes may add to hawkish tone as bets of 50-bps hike grow. Nvidia to report earnings as bar to impress high after spy scandal. Trade and geopolitics to be focal point of Trump-Xi summit.

Gold hit its lowest level of 2026 near $3,850
Gold (XAU/USD) attempts to stabilize around $3,890 on Friday after falling to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2025. The precious metal has lost more than 4% this week, as investors increasingly anticipate further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest decline reflects a sharp change in market expectations.