Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from one-month top, $31.00 confluence hurdle

Silver faces rejection near the $31.00 confluence and snaps a three-day winning streak.
Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $30.40-$30.35 support.
Bulls need to wait for a move beyond the trend-channel hurdle before placing fresh bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers on Friday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the $31.00 neighborhood, or over a one-month high touched the previous day. The white metal remains depressed through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the $30.60-$30.55 area, down 0.70% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the recent move-up witnessed since the beginning of this month stalls near a confluence hurdle comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the top end of a descending channel extending from a multi-year top touched in October. A sustained breakout through the said barrier should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move for the XAG/USD.

Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are away from being in the overbought zone, the commodity might then accelerate the momentum towards the $31.70 hurdle. The subsequent move-up should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $32.00 round-figure mark and climb further towards testing the December monthly swing high, around the $32.30-$32.35 region.

On the flip side, any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $30.40-$30.35 region, which, in turn, should help limit the downside near the $30.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter might prompt technical selling and drag the XAG/USD towards the $29.55-$29.50 support en route to the $29.00 mark and the $28.75-$28.70 area, or a multi-month low touched in December.

XAG/USD daily chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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