|

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retraces after hitting a new week high around $21.60s

  • US Dollar weakened across the board on dovish-tilted Federal Reserve minutes.
  • Mixed economic data from the United States keeps the US Dollar pressured.
  • XAG/USD Price Analysis: Remains upward after conquering the 200-DMA, eyeing $22.00.

Silver price retraces after hitting a weekly high of $21.67, after climbing sharply on Wednesday, following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (FED) November meeting minutes, which weakened the US Dollar (USD). Also, factors like China’s Covid-19 crisis failed to trigger a flight to safety into the white metal. Hence, the XAG/USD trades at $21.47 a troy ounce.

On Thursday, Wall Street is closed in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. The last meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that “A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate,” giving the green light to investors seeking riskier assets. However, caution is warranted, as policymakers expressed “uncertainty” about how high rates need to go after emphasizing that inflation in the United States (US) remains “too high.”

Regarding Wednesday’s US economic calendar, S&P Global PMIs witnessed most indices moving into contractionary territory, another headwind for the US Dollar, while the Initial Jobless Claims for the last week jumped above forecasts, signaling that the labor market is easing.

On the positive side, US Durable Good Orders for October surprisingly rose, while the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for November portrayed Americans are optimistic about the economy. The University of Michigan poll updated inflation expectations, with one-year ticking down to 5%, while for a 5-10 year horizon, were unchanged at 3%.

Back to price action, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s value vs. its peers, drops by 0.21% at 105.875, extending its losses to three days. US Treasury yields, mainly the 10-year benchmark, followed suit, falling three bps at 3.663%.

Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD): Technical outlook

Albeit Silver price retreated from weekly highs, it remains above the trendsetter 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $21.37, sought as support by the white metal buyers. The XAG/USD bias remains upwards, and it could resume its uptrend if buyers reclaim $22.00. if that scenario plays out, the XAG/USD following resistance would be November 15 high at $22.24, followed by the June 6 high at $22.51. Otherwise, the XAG/USD first support would be the 200-day EMA at $21.37, followed by the psychological $21.00 mark.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD is defending its renewed uptick above 1.3300 in the European session on Friday, helped by stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data for June. The pair snaps a five-day losing streak but the upside potential could be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East.


EUR/USD holds gains near 1.1400 after strong German, EU PMIs

EUR/USD is holding gains near 1.1400 in European trading on Friday. The Euro draws support from an unexpected increase in the German and Eurozone business PMI readings for July. However, further upside appears limited by escalating conflicts in the Middle East, despite the ECB's hawkish hold decision. The US PMI data are next in focus.

Gold sticks to intraday losses below $4,050 amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day, and weakens further below the $4,050 level during the Asian session. Escalating US-Iran tensions support elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and bolstering expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates. This helps the US Dollar preserve its strong weekly gains to a nearly one-month high, touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor undermining the non-yielding bullion.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin tests 50-day EMA support – Pi Network and Sky lead losses

The broader cryptocurrency market faces headwinds with rising tensions between the US and Iran, pushing Bitcoin down to its 50-day Exponential Moving Average support around $65,135 on Friday. Under pressure, Pi Network and Sky emerge as the worst-performing crypto assets over the last 24 hours.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.