Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD braces to $23.00 amid rising US T-bond yields and real-yields

After Monday’s 2% rally, the white metal consolidated, though clinging to $23.00. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $23.12. So far in the week, silver is up close to 2%, but the upward move stalled ahead of challenging the 100-day moving average (DMA) at $23.19.

Overall, US dollar strength surrounds the financial markets, as shown by US Treasury yields. The US T-bond 10-year benchmark note is at 1.96%, rises four and a half basis points, a headwind for the non-yielding metal. Meanwhile, US 10-year TIPS yield, a proxy for real yields, climbs four basis points, up to -0.448%, weighing on the prices of precious metals. 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against a basket of peers, rises 0.22%, up at 95.61.

The lack of catalyst keeps investors focused on tightening monetary policy and inflation in the US central bank. On Thursday, the Labor Department will reveal the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, widely expected to rise to 7.3%, leaving December’s 7% behind. Excluding volatile items, like food and energy, the so-called  Core-CPI is foreseen at 5.9%, both readings on an annual basis.

The US economic docket featured the Trade Balance for December, which came at $-80.7 B, better than the $-83 billion estimated. Exports increased $4 B more than the $224.7 B in December, while Imports also grew to $308.9 B, from $304 B.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On Monday, XAG/USD broke above the 50-day moving average (DMA), but it faced strong resistance at the $23.00 figure. Nevertheless, the rally broke four resistance levels on its way up, as XAG bulls get ready for a challenge of the 100-DMA at $23.19.

Silver is neutral-bullish biased. A breach of the 100-DMA could send the non-yielding metal upwards. The first resistance would be January 3 high at $23.40, followed by a tenth-month-old downslope trendline, around the $24.00-$24.20 range.