Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD stumbles, falling back into $23

Silver trips and tumbles in Monday trading, heading towards $23.00.
The XAG/USD failed to capture $23.80 on Friday, and Silver is heading back into recent swing low territory.
A bouncing US Dollar Index is seeing the XAG/USD take a step lower.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

Silver is falling further back to kick off the new trading week, testing into familiar lows after last Friday's bounce couldn't be sustained.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to see interest rates holding higher for longer than previously expected, and the boost to the US Dollar Index (DXY) is capping off recent upside swings for the XAG/USD.

After the Fed upped their interest rate forecast, or "dot plot" last week, the US central bank expects interest rates to only decline half a percent by the end of 2024. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) previously saw end-2024 rates at 4.6%, but sticky inflation complications saw the Fed up their forecast to 5.1%.

XAG/USD technical outlook

On the hourly candles, Silver is looking to build a floor near the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $23.15 after tumbling around 2.5% from Monday's highs near $23.65.

Intraday upside momentum will be looking to recapture familiar territory north of the 100-hour SMA currently settling near $23.35.

Silver is suffering from a notable lack of meaningful trend momentum in the long-term, with the XAG/USD cycling the 200-day SMA on daily candlesticks.

Price action is constrained to the middle as Silver consolidates, with lower highs and slightly higher lows trapping XAG/USD into the midrange.

Swing lows are pricing in near $22.40, with the top end set to run into a descending trendline near $24.40.

XAG/USD daily chart

XAG/USD technical levels

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price	23.11
Today Daily Change	-0.44
Today Daily Change %	-1.87
Today daily open	23.55

Trends
Daily SMA20	23.51
Daily SMA50	23.67
Daily SMA100	23.63
Daily SMA200	23.47

Levels
Previous Daily High	23.78
Previous Daily Low	23.39
Previous Weekly High	23.78
Previous Weekly Low	22.81
Previous Monthly High	25.02
Previous Monthly Low	22.23
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	23.63
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	23.54
Daily Pivot Point S1	23.37
Daily Pivot Point S2	23.19
Daily Pivot Point S3	22.98
Daily Pivot Point R1	23.75
Daily Pivot Point R2	23.96
Daily Pivot Point R3	24.14

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

EUR/USD struggles near 1.1850, with all eyes on US CPI data

EUR/USD holds losses while keeping its range near 1.1850 in European trading on Friday. A broadly cautious market environment paired with a steady US Dollar undermines the pair ahead of the critical US CPI data. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Q4 GDP second estimate has little to no impact on the Euro.

GBP/USD recovers above 1.3600, awaits US CPI for fresh impetus

GBP/USD recovers some ground above 1.3600 in the European session on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction. The US Dollar remains supported amid a softer risk tone and ahead of the US consumer inflation figures due later in the NA session on Friday.

Gold remains below $5,000 as US inflation report looms

Gold retreats from the vicinity of the $5,000 psychological mark, though sticks to its modest intraday gains in the European session. Traders now look forward to the release of the US consumer inflation figures for more cues about the Fed policy path. The outlook will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

US CPI data set to show modest inflation cooling as markets price in a more hawkish Fed

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish January’s Consumer Price Index data on Friday, delayed by the brief and partial United States government shutdown. The report is expected to show that inflationary pressures eased modestly but also remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The weekender: When software turns the blade on itself

Autonomous AI does not just threaten trucking companies and call centers. It challenges the cognitive toll booths that legacy software has charged for decades. This is not a forecast. No one truly knows the end state of AI.

Solana Price Forecast: Mixed market sentiment caps recovery

Solana (SOL) is trading at $79 as of Friday, following a correction of over 9% so far this week. On-chain and derivatives data indicates mixed sentiment among traders, further limiting the chances of a price recovery.