Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD rally stalls amidst positive US data as bearish signals emerge

XAG/USD risks a bearish-engulfing pattern and double-top formation as the price retreats from a 12-month high.
A downward path is anticipated, with crucial support levels at $25.00 and $24.00 amid fading buying momentum.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

Silver price retreats after reaching a 12-month new high at $26.13 in the New York session. An improvement in the US labor market due to an upbeat US jobs report trumped XAG’s chances to test last year’s high. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $25.60, down 1.69%.

XAG/USD Price Action

As of writing, XAG/USD is still upward biased but at the brisk of a pullback. If XAG/USD registers a daily close below the May 4 daily low of $25.44, that could form two bearish signals: firstly, a bearish-engulfing candle pattern which suggests that downward action is warranted. The second is the possible formation of a double-top, a major reversal chart pattern, which could drive prices toward the $24.00 figure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator added another signal to the mix, forming a negative divergence. This means that as XAG/USD’s price action reached successive higher highs, the RSI peaked at lower highs as buying momentum faded. Additionally, the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) shows that buying pressure is waning as sellers move into action.

Therefore, XAG/USD’s path of least resistance is downwards. The first support would be the $25.00 mark. A breach of the latter would expose the April 25 swing low of $24.49, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.11, which, once cleared and XAG/USD’s will challenge the $24.00 figure.

XAG/USD Daily Chart

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price	25.6
Today Daily Change	-0.44
Today Daily Change %	-1.69
Today daily open	26.04

Trends
Daily SMA20	25.23
Daily SMA50	23.37
Daily SMA100	23.3
Daily SMA200	21.7

Levels
Previous Daily High	26.06
Previous Daily Low	25.44
Previous Weekly High	25.36
Previous Weekly Low	24.49
Previous Monthly High	26.09
Previous Monthly Low	23.57
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	25.83
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	25.68
Daily Pivot Point S1	25.64
Daily Pivot Point S2	25.23
Daily Pivot Point S3	25.01
Daily Pivot Point R1	26.26
Daily Pivot Point R2	26.47
Daily Pivot Point R3	26.88

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold appears slightly bid above $4,100

Gold prices manage to reverse three consecutive daily declines, trading just above the $4,100 per troy ounce on Wednesday. The yellow metal’s recovery comes amid a humble advance in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields across the board and a widespread cautious tone from the US-Iran front.

Bitcoin eyes a break above $85,000 as institutional demand returns

Bitcoin edges higher above $83,000, extending its rebound from the 50-day EMA near $80,786. US-listed BTC spot ETFs recorded over $23 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following Monday's $526 million, signaling a return of institutional demand.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.