Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD holds steady above $28.00, not out of the woods yet
- Silver builds on last week’s modest bounce from the lowest level since May 9.
- The technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further gains.
- The $27.45 area, or the multi-month low, is the last line of defence for bulls.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias for the second straight day on Monday and moves further away from its lowest level since May 9 touched last week. The white metal currently trades just above the $28.00 mark, up over 0.50% for the day, though the technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.
Last week's sustained breakdown through the $28.65-$28.60 horizontal support or the June swing low, which coincided with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside and supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels.
Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $28.55-$28.60 zone, or the 100-day SMA support breakpoint. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $29.00 round-figure mark. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $29.40-$29.45 supply zone, coinciding with last week's swing high.
On the flip side, the $27.45 region, or the multi-month low set last Thursday, now seems to act as an immediate strong support. Some follow-through selling will reaffirm the near-term negative outlook and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall to the $27.00 mark. The white metal could weaken further below the $26.60-$26.55 intermediate support and eventually drop to the very important 200-day SMA support, currently pegged just below the $26.00 round figure.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
