Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD drops 1.0% following ECB, but well within recent ranges pre-US CPI/Fed meeting

Spot silver (XAG/USD) was trading with a negative bias at weekly lows in the $21.80 per troy ounce area on Thursday, down around 1.0% on the day, in wake of a hawkish ECB policy announcement that saw the bank signal a 25 bps rate hike next month plus the end of QE and a possible 50 bps hike in September depending on the development of the outlook for inflation.

But that still leaves XAG/USD well within recent ranges and support in the form of the 21-Day Moving Average at $21.80 continues to hold. Silver is thus currently close to the middle of a $21.50-$22.50ish range that has been in play since the end of May and traders will be looking to Friday’s US Consumer Price Inflation data and next Wednesday’s Fed meeting to see whether things get shaken up.

Silver bulls will be hoping for Friday’s inflation data to surprise to the downside and reinforce the idea that US inflation has now peaked, thus likely resulting in some further paring back of Fed tightening bets. This would weigh on US yields and the buck, both of which are typically positive for precious metals.

Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 bps at next week’s meeting (and again in July), so this shouldn’t come as a surprise to hurt silver. What will be more important is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary in the post-meeting press conference on the outlook for rate hikes beyond July.

If he starts sounding a little more confident that inflation is going to fall back from current elevated levels/concerned about the weakening US economy, then that, if CPI also surprised to the downside, could help XAG/USD rally into the $23.00-$23.50 area, where it would run into resistance in the form of its 50 and 200-Day Moving Averages.