RBNZ's Conway: Inflation risks have shifted toward the downside

Following the correction seen in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD gains traction to start the new week and trades in positive territory above 1.1700. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract buyers as investors await Tuesday's GDP data ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

GBP/USD turns north on Monday and trades in positive territory above 1.3400. The US Dollar (USD) stays on the back foot to begin the new week as investors adjust their positions before tomorrow's growth data, helping the pair stretch higher.

Gold trades at a fresh all-time-high above $4,400 Monday, rising more than 1.5% on a daily basis. The potential for a re-escalation of the tensions in the Middle East on news of Israel planning to attack Iran allows Gold to capitalize on safe-haven flows.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are approaching key technical levels at the time of writing on Monday as the broader crypto market stabilizes. Market participants are closely watching whether BTC, ETH, and XRP can sustain breakouts and achieve decisive daily closes above nearby resistance levels, which could signal the start of a short-term recovery.

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades at $25 at press time on Monday, holding the 3% gains from the previous day. The perpetual exchange sees a recovery in active users, while weekly fees collected decline to the lowest level so far this month.