RBA’s Bullock: Need to be much more confident on inflation coming down to consider rate cut
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking on the policy outlook at a press conference following the announcement of the March monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
Bullock is responding to questions from the media, as part of a new reporting format for the central bank.
Key quotes
We are making progress in fight against inflation.
Recent data suggest we are on right track.
Keeping keen eye on employment numbers.
Risks to outlook are finely balanced.
War isnt yet won on inflation.
Change statement language in response to data.
Labour market still slightly on tight side.
Board sees risks on both sides for policy.
Unemployment rate not only thing we look at.
On the one hand, we still have inflation above target.
Services inflation is still elevated.
On the other hand, we are conscious that consumption is slowing.
And also tightness in labour market conditions is easing.
We can't rule anything in or out.
Need to be much more confident on inflation coming down to consider rate cut.
Easing in energy prices is really positive for inflation outlook.
The board considers a range of possibilities on policy.
We are responding to data as the data comes out.
Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) could be between 4.0% and 4.5% but uncertain.
Market reaction
AUD/USD is holding lower ground near 0.6530 on the above comments, down 0.31% on the day.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
