Price Analysis NZD/USD: CPI coming up, bulls look to 50% mean reversion, bears, 61.8% Fibo

Ross J Burland FXStreet

The main event is NZ Q4 CPI data at 10:45am - Market is sitting at 0.4% q/q. "More broadly, the starting point inflation picture has improved and the outlook is looking more assured.

Let's take a look at possible outcomes for the price action just ahead of the event for both NZD/USD.

NZD/USD daily chart

The upside holds a tough confluence of 23.6% and 50% Fibo at 0.6680. "A print within the range of market expectations is consistent with a patient RBNZ and out updated call for a flat OCR for some time from here," analysts at ANZ Bank explained, which would bring this level into focus, so long as bulls can 'blow the doors off' through 0.6640. A miss in expectations or a disappointment within the report will open prospects for a test to the 61,8% Fibo at 0.6550 – A surprise will open up the 200-day moving average and 78.6% confluence around the 0.6500 round number guarding a full retracement back to the 0.6420s.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD keeps the firm tone above 1.3600

GBP/USD clings to its daily gains, although it gives back some of them and recedes toward the 1.3630-1.3620 band on Thursday. Cable’s uptick comes despite the modest bounce in the Greenback, while investors gear up for key data releases on the UK calendar on Friday.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1670

EUR/USD gives away all its initial gains and receded to the sub-1.1700 region. The US Dollar’s late recovery has dragged the pair lower, leaving it practically unchanged following the NA session on Thursday. In the meantime, investors gear up for the release of preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,500

Gold manages to regain some composure and reclaim the area beyond the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s daily decline comes amid the humble improvement in the US Dollar while US Treasury yields remain on the rise following Wednesday’s marked retracement across the curve.

Ethereum bulls defend rally above $2,300 despite rising profit-taking

Ethereum continued its rally on Thursday as capital gradually flowed back into the derivatives market after the recent leverage flush. ETH open interest, which is the total worth of outstanding contracts in a derivatives market, has risen by 270K ETH to 13.2M ETH over the past few hours.

Why long bonds have repriced the cost of money

The 30-year Treasury is 12 basis points below its highest level since before the financial crisis. Not its highest since 2023, or since the tightening cycle, but since June 12, 2007, the last time the longest bond in the world's deepest market yielded what it yields on Thursday. Getting there took two attempts and most of the year.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.