Polls closing, bellwether N.Carolina in focus, Trump leads Florida, US dollar under pressure

Ross J Burland FXStreet

The US elections are the market's focus today.

Stakes have not been higher in generations for a nation in crisis and financial and commodity markets.

See the preview here:

US Elections are finally here: Buckle-in for volatility

Meanwhile, we are starting to get the first indications for some states.

Crucially, Florida has Trump in the lead according to the following New York Times gauge:

Florida is important because it has proposed ballots weeks before election day and results should be out today.

If Trump wins Florida he gets to stat in the race but if Biden wins in, to could be his path to the White House.

However, North Carolina has voted Republican in every election since 1980, bar 2008 when it surprisingly flipped for Barack Obama.

Exit polls show that the Republicans are battling back to catch up with the early Joe Biden scorecard that has a 19 point swing.

Donald Trump took the state for the Republicans in 2016, winning over Hillary Clinton by 3.6 per cent.

However, with a rapidly increasing suburban, college-educated population, the Tar Heel state’s 13 Electoral College votes were firmly in play for Joe Biden.

On an important side note, 4.5 million voted early, about 50% more than 2016.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is on the backfoot early into the voting:

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead: Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, has made few public appearances since taking the central bank helm in May, yet he’s found it difficult to steer off controversy. Question marks about his relations with the President, Donald Trump, continue to swirl, while markets are still trying to make sense of his approach to monetary policy.

CFTC Report: Oil positioning rebounds; VIX and Yen exposure turn more bearish

The week in one sentence: Speculative positioning turned more constructive in the week to August 18. WTI recorded the largest increase, followed by a sharp narrowing in CAD net shorts. VIX and JPY positioning moved the other way, while Gold remained the clearest crowded long despite a softer spot price.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.