Palantir Technologies stocks trend following trade idea: How to play the long term trend accelerating lower

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets Trend Following Trade.

According to AQR the quantitative hedge fund and Yale University, over the past 100 years markets moved in trends. Trends are successive upwards and downwards movements in price that occur at a greater frequency than would be predicted by randomness alone. The following trade idea is a trend following trade idea which takes the assumption that the market will continue moving in the way it has over the previous sessions. Trend Trading, however is different than scalping due to the time horizon of the trade as trend following trades will take a week while scalping is done on a daily or intraday basis.

Market summary

Price

Palantir Technologies last price was $ 7.98.

Trend analysis

In the short term Palantir Technologies has been accelerating lower. In the long term Palantir Technologies has been accelerating lower.

Value analysis

Over the past 23 days, the Palantir Technologies price increased 10 days and decreased 13 days.

For every up day, there were 1.3 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 3.1664%

The average return on days where the price decreased is -2.6521%

Performance

Over the past 23 Days, the price has decreased by -4.32% percent.

Over the past 23 days, the average return per day has been -0.1878% percent.

Trade idea

Taking into account the long term trend accelerating lower, we propose a short trade idea with time horizon..

Trend trade idea

Sell $ 64,875 USD of Palantir Technologies, take profit at $ 7.7686 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,718 USD gain, stop out at $ 8.4031 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through a one Week time horizon

Intraday predictions

Palantir technologies trend analysis

Palantir Technologies last price was $ 7.98. The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

Palantir technologies value analysis

Over the past 23 days, the Palantir Technologies price increased 10 days and decreased 13 days. For every up day, there were 1.3 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 3.1664% The average return on days where the price decreased is -2.6521% Over the past 23 Days, the price has decreased by -4.32% percent. Over the past 23 days, the average return per day has been -0.1878% percent.

Palantir technologies worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for Palantir Technologies, is $ 6.6675 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 9.2925 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 8.4031 could trade and that $ 7.7686 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected Range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for PLTR, is $ 6.6675 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 9.2925 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 8.4031 could trade and that $ 7.7686 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability Vs Payout Chart:

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 7.98.

• Over the past 23 days, the Palantir Technologies price increased 10 days and decreased 13 Days.

• For every up day, there were 1.3 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 3.1664%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -2.6521%.

• Over the past 23 Days, the price has decreased by -4.32% percent.

• Over the past 23 days, the average return per day has been -0.1878% percent.

• Over the past 23 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.0266 per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by $ -0.65.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -8.1454 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.55.