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Over the weekend: Brexit divergence continues to widen

Broad-market hopes for a last-minute Hail Mary Brexit clincher are set to wane this week, with the usual stream of rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines over the weekend slamming the needle firmly to the 'fear' side of the gauge, with multiple media outlets reporting that UK ministers are threatening to quit (again), UK PM May has pulled the plug on a last-minute Brexit cabinet meeting, and last week's hope of a Friday deal outline, which transformed into hopes for a Tuesday deal outline, are getting flushed as well.

Key highlights

(Via Reuters): 

Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May’s government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides. May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland.

Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc. A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: “This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal.”

(Via Sky News): 

UK MP Liam Fox, in an interview with Sky News: "We may or may not be able to get that agreement, in which case we would have to leave the European Union without one. But we are not going to get bounced into another referendum, so that those who lost the previous one can try to apply continued membership of the European Union to the people of Britain in perpetuity."

(Via the UK Independent): 

Theresa May has been forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal, after fresh opposition at home and abroad plunged her timetable into turmoil. The prime minister shelved the meeting, pencilled in for Monday, slamming on the brakes after fierce resistance in her cabinet and in Brussels threatened to derail the path to an agreement. A government source conceded that an outline deal might not be ready by Tuesday – making it increasingly unlikely that a special EU summit to sign it off can be held in November, as hoped. 

That would leave the UK having to ramp up hugely expensive no-deal preparations and in danger of being unable to pass all necessary legislation before the Brexit deadline next March. At home, Ms May faced an open challenge to her plans from Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, who vowed the UK “cannot be held against its will” by the backstop plan for the Irish border. Ms Leadsom became the second cabinet minister to insist on a unilateral power to escape being bound in the EU customs union – something explicitly ruled out by Brussels.

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Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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