Research Team at Deutsche Bank notes that the OPEC market share remains well above the 2014 level even after production cuts of -1.4 mmb/d since the October 2014 baseline.
Key Quotes
“Today, OPEC produces 40.2% of the world's crude oil, down from the recent 41.3% peak in August 2016, but still up considerably from the November 2014 level of 38.8%. After cutting production to defend the bottom of the USD 22-28/bbl price band in 2001, OPEC crude oil market share fell to 35.9% in April 2002.”
“On the assumption of two years of demand growth of 1.4 mmb/d, and OPEC production remaining flat at the February 2017 level of 32,005 kb/d, OPEC crude oil market share would fall to 38.9% in 2019. While this is considerably below the current 40.2% level, it would still be above the November 2014 level which arguably contributed to the decision to allow maximum output, and well above the April 2002 trough. More positively, on our OPEC-13 assumption of 32,300 kb/ d, OPEC crude oil market share would remain at 39.2% in 2019. The decline in market share over the three years from 2016 to 2019 of -2.1% to -2.5% would still be less than the -3.3% suffered in the six months between August 2008 and February 2009.”
“This suggests that while market share concerns may well re-emerge in the near future, an extension of the Algiers Accord through the end of 2018 may not be as farfetched as some may believe.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD bounces back, trades above 1.0860
EUR/USD bounced from a fresh weekly low of 1.0827, as the US Dollar lost steam following a weak ISM Manufacturing PMI report and words from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell reiterated its hawkish message, dismissing potential rate cuts in the near future.
GBP/USD turns north ahead of the weekly close, approaches 1.2700
GBP/USD extended its rebound from near 1.2600 and is approaching 1.2700 on the back of a weaker US Dollar. The Greenback accelerated to the downside following comments from Fed’s Powell.
Gold resumes advance and approaches record highs
Gold remains near record highs and achieved its highest monthly close ever in November. Global bond yields continue to decline as inflation further cools, supporting the upside in XAU/USD. With central banks expected to remain on hold, the focus will be US labor market data.
Solana likely to extend gains as DeFi airdrop season could boost user base
Solana ecosystem will see airdrops from projects like Jupiter, Marginfi, Drift, Zeta and Jito. Solana users are projected to increase between 30% and 80% from native token launches, according to Messari’s latest report. SOL price extends rally, yielding nearly 4% daily gains.
Tesla Stock News: Cybertruck excitement fails to sustain TSLA price as chart signals more downside
TSLA stock sinks three days in a row despite Cybertruck unveiling. Analysts conclude that Cybertruck will find it difficult to turn a profit. TSLA stock is the midst of forming a bearish Three Black Crows pattern on the daily chart.