Oil: Year-end target of $100, upside beyond looks unlikely in 2024 – ANZ

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at ANZ Bank maintain their end of year price target of $100/bbl for Oil prices.

Oil’s last hurrah?

Supply cuts are finally tightening the Oil market. We now expect sharp drawdowns in inventories in the coming months. However, the recent rally in prices remains on shaky ground.

The supply tightness is largely managed by OPEC. Any sustained rally in prices is reliant on demand continuing to improve. For the moment, that appears to be the case. There is hope that recently announced stimulus measures can support further growth.

Over the medium term, some red flags that could cap this upside in prices are emerging. EVs in China are increasingly eating into Oil consumption. We expect lost Oil consumption from EVs to hit 260K b/d in 2023. That will reach 1.5M b/d by the end of the decade.

We maintain our end of year price target of $100/bbl; however, upside beyond this looks unlikely in 2024.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD extends losses toward 1.3400 amid US-Iran tensions

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1400 ahead of US sentiment data

Gold struggles to hold above $4,000, looks to post weekly losses

Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the second half hinges on these 4 catalysts

Bitcoin has fallen over 34% in the first half of this year as the King Crypto failed to capitalize on a good semester for risk assets despite the woes from the Iran war. With risk-loving investors increasingly looking at AI-related stocks and with no visible catalysts ahead, Bitcoin enters the second half of the year facing a crucial question: can it rebuild demand or will the correction deepen?

Risk-off rolls into Friday

I am waking up to a risk-off tape across equities this morning, with Asia-Pac shares on the ropes amid continued selling in the chip sector. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down over 5% and on track to pencil in its worst single-day loss since March, while South Korea’s KOSPI has kept its door closed in observance of a national bank holiday.

-0.4%: Why the biggest CPI drop since 2020 couldn't buy back a single cut

The June CPI fell 0.4% on the month, the largest one-month decline since April 2020, dragging the annual rate to 3.5% from May's 4.2% and snapping a three-month acceleration streak. Core prices went nowhere, flat on the month and down to 2.6% YoY, both under consensus.