Oil prices to move around the $115 level over coming months – ANZ

Strategists at ANZ Bank have revised their short-term oil price forecast to $115 from $135. On the other hand, they have lifted their 12-month target to $115 from $85, previously.

Global oil market balance to be less tight in the next six months

“We expect the global oil market balance to be less tight in the next six months. In particular, stock withdrawals in the third quarter will be less pronounced and result in a much lower average drawdown for the quarter vs the 1.5 mb/daverage drawdown before the SPR release. Therefore, we have trimmed our short-term (0-3M) price target to $115/bbl from $135/bbl.”

“Assuming the SPR will need to be replenished over the course of Q4 2022 and most likely 2023, we should expect an increase in crude demand. However, global inventories will significantly decrease. This is likely to sow the seeds for a future price rally. The market will be hamstrung in responding to future supply shortages, likely leading to significantly higher volatility. That has led us to increase our 12-month target from $85/bbl to $115/bbl.”