Oil Price Analysis: WTI spikes past $41 again but $41.40 has been sticky in the past

WTI 1-hour price chart

Oil has bounced in the US session after trading lower for most of Monday. There has been no real fundamental reason for the price drive but the price is now heading to the red line at USD 41.40 per barrel. The price has had many reactions at the zone and it has been used as a support and resistance level at least five times on this graph alone. On the higher timeframes, the market is still in a clear uptrend and there has been some loss of momentum but not enough to call it a trend change. 

Later in the week, the market will get the latest inventory levels from the Department of Energy (DoE) and the American Petroleum Association (API). Last week there was a build in both the API and DoE inventories. This came after a decent run of drawdowns, interestingly, the Baker Hughes data is still showing fewer rigs online and this is positive for the price. The OPEC+ group are starting to taper their output cuts and over the next two months, they are cutting 2 million barrels per day. If there is a second spike around the world the group may not continue to taper but that remains to be seen. 

Back to the chart now and the indicators are really mixed. The Relative Strength Index is back above 50 but the MACD histogram is red. The signal lines are under the midpoint which is bearish but this often happens in a sideways market and on this timeframe there is no clear trend. The trend would continue if the high on the chart of USD 41.52 per barrel is broken. This is the level that the bulls are watching closely. 

Additional levels