Oil: Potential Trump-Putin meeting – ING

ICE Brent settled almost 0.7% lower yesterday with hopes that Presidents Trump and Putin may meet soon, possibly as soon as next week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Crude Oil imports in July averages 11.2m b/d

"It’s still unclear if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will take part. This is important because it could affect the secondary tariffs on India, depending on how discussions go. However, it is important to note that President Trump’s deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal expires today, leaving open the risk that the US will still tighten sanctions against Moscow."

"Meanwhile, there are media reports that Indian state refiners are taking a step back from buying Russian crude Oil amid the tariff uncertainty. Refiners are waiting for some guidance from the government before resuming their purchases. Indian exports to the US dwarf the savings that India receives from buying discounted Russian crude Oil. Therefore, we believe that India will likely switch to alternative crude supply in order to avoid these additional tariffs. This should lead to increased demand for other grades from the Middle East, continuing to provide support to Dubai relative to Brent."

"The latest trade data from China shows that crude Oil imports in July averaged 11.2m b/d, up 11.5% year on year, but down a little more than 8% month on month. Imports in June were strong as independent refiners restocked. This leaves cumulative imports so far this year at 11.3m b/d over the first seven months of the year, up 3.2% YoY."