Danske Bank analysts note that the oil price collapsed towards the end of May before finding support at USD60/bbl as the risk-off in the oil market came on the back of new threats from Trump towards Mexico and fears over further escalations in the US-China trade war.
Key Quotes
“The balance in the market still looks tight. On the supply-side OPEC+ is implementing the output cuts agreed upon in December 2018 and is discussing a possible extension from June. Venezuelan production is in freefall, Libyan output is at risk following an insurgence and the waivers on Iranian sanctions have expired.”
“On the demand side, the macro backdrop remains relatively weak as the macroeconomic data and global trade growth prospects have been weak. Risk assessment remains with any further rise in tensions between the US and Iran posing upside risks and a further escalation of the US/China trade war posing downside risks to the oil price.”
“OPEC will meet early July to discuss extension of current cuts and adjustments to production to mitigate the effects of Iran, Libya and Venezuela. We see Brent on average at USD75/bbl in Q3 and USD80/bbl in Q4.”
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