Oil: Attention shifts to OPEC+ – ING

Oil prices edged marginally lower yesterday, a move that continued in early morning trading today, as the market increasingly turns its attention towards the OPEC+ meeting this weekend., ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The geopolitical risk premium erodes following the ceasefire

"The group is expected to agree to another large supply increase of 411k b/d, taking total supply increases since April to almost 1.8m b/d. Given its strategy shift, we believe the group will continue with these large increases. This would see the full 2.2m b/d of supply brought back online by the end of the third quarter, 12 months ahead of the original schedule."

"These larger supply increases should leave the global oil market well supplied for the remainder of the year. It’s set to return to a large surplus in the fourth quarter of this year. Clearly, recent price action suggests the market is mostly focused on this supply."

"The geopolitical risk premium has eroded fairly quickly following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Expectations for a comfortable oil balance, along with a large amount of OPEC spare production capacity, appear to be comforting the market."