OECD raises 2025 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.2%, warns of protectionism risks

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned of increasing growth risks from rising trade tensions and protectionism even after raising the global growth outlook for the next year.

Key takeaways

Sees 2024 global growth at 3.2% (unchanged), sees 3.3% in 2025 and 2026 (2025 raised from 3.2% previously).

Raises 2024 US growth forecast to 2.8% (2.6% previously), raises 2025 to 2.4% (from 1.6%) sees 2026 at 2.1%.

Sees the Japanese economy contracting 0.3% in 2024 (-0.1% previously), rebounding to 1.5% in 2025 (1.4% previously), sees 2026 at 0.6%.

Sees 2024 Chinese growth at 4.9% (unchanged), 2025 at 4.7% (4.5% previously) and 2026 at 4.4%.

Sees Eurozone growth at 0.8% in 2024 (0.7% previously), 1.3% in 2025 (unchanged) and 1.5% in 2026.

Sees US Fed cutting rates to 3.25-3.50% by q1 2026, ECB seen cutting to 2.0% by end 2025, the BoJ seen raising to 1.5% by end 2026.

Trims 2024 UK growth to 0.9% (1.1% previously), raises 2025 to 1.7% (1.2% previously), sees 1.3% in 2026.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.